Today I was shared an article in the Guardian about how the climate is likely about to shift due to changes in the AMOC. And I can see the two camps reading that article already:
- Liberal view: OMG the Earth is nearing a catastrophic tipping point! We have to stop everything humanity is doing before this becomes the disaster that turns the entire world into Mad Max!
- Conservative view: Pssh, this is just another ploy by crazy pinko commies who hate fossil fuels and big industry to try to shut down the economy! Don’t you hippies know how many jobs are at stake!?
And I’m standing on the sideline, looking at both parties, saying “geez.”
So let’s get a couple things straight here about where I stand on climate change:
- Is climate change happening? Prolly.
- Did humanity cause it this time? Prolly.
But — that’s about where it stops.
The liberal jumps straight from those two facts to “and therefore we must stop everything!” The conservative disavows those are even facts. You got your choice between Chicken Little insisting the sky is falling, and Mrs. Ostrich with her head in the sand.
We probably shouldn’t be birds.
I grew up on the shores of Lake Michigan. Great Lakes territory. Lakes bigger than a lot of seas. If you’re on a boat in the middle of Lake Michigan, you can’t see land in any direction. Drive or sail for a few hours… and you still can’t see land in any direction. These lakes are bigger than a lot of countries.
They’re also 12,000 years old, give or take. That might seem like a long time, but in geology, that’s a blink of an eye. Civilization, maybe just a few thousand years. Human culture, about 100,000 years. Human beings ourselves have been around maybe 300,000 years. The dinosaurs? 76 million years ago, plus. Life on this planet? Billions of years.
These lakes are bigger than the biggest big — and they’ve been around since approximately yesterday.
One day, about 12,000 years ago, the first Native Americans were likely expanding across North America past a big honking glacier, and they noticed that huh, there’s a lake at the edge there. That glacier pulled back, uncovering New York and Boston from a mile of ice, leaving a great big hole in the middle of the continent, and filling it with water in the process.
The biggest lakes in the world have been around for so little time that humans were around to watch it happen.
Earth just said, “Hey, y’know what, we’re gonna do warm now for a few epochs, say g’bye to the glaciers, everybody good with that? Cool, bruh, don’t actually care what you think, we’re doing it anyway.” Massive climate change. Not one iota of human activity required. We were passive bystanders on the Tuesday the glaciers started to melt, and we couldn’t get a word in edgewise.
How long has the AMOC been circulating? Turns out it’s about the same amount of time.
Even if we didn’t cause climate change this time around, there’s nothing stopping Earth from doing it herself whenever she feels like it. It’s happened before, it’ll happen again. The only constant on this little ball of dirt is change. Seems like this time around we’re going hot: 100,000 years from now, if humanity hasn’t blown itself up by then, our descendants will probably get to watch the pendulum swing back to ice again.
Change — including climate change — is normal. It happens. The writing’s been on the wall for all of human history: Now isn’t permanent. You adapt, or you die.
Funny thing, though, is that human beings are the most adaptive species this planet has ever produced.
We live in places hot and cold. We’ve been to the tops of mountains, the bottoms of seas, to both poles, and around the equator. People live just as readily in the frozen tundras as they do in the heat of the jungle. Some guy is floating around the Earth in a space station right now, and we’ve even walked on the moon. We’re astonishingly good at finding ways to survive terrible environments, maybe even better at it than tardigrades. If the oceans suddenly turned into hydrofluoric acid, we’d just be like, “Better not go swimming without your steel armor on, Timmy.”
So what’s that really mean? The climate’s probably shifting, sure enough. Maybe we did it this time. Also the Netherlands lives just fine already with most of the country below sea level. We figured out how to live with an uncooperative environment before. We’ll do it again.
That’s not to say it won’t affect things. We’re also damn good at fighting, and people will migrate away from unlivable places, so there’ll be wars, and arguments over land, and winners and losers. But to say that “climate change wrecks everything” is a bridge too far: We’ll adapt. We always have. If we survived the last ice age, we can probably handle the next hot age. You know what happens when sea levels rise 10 meters? They build a dam around New York City to keep the water out, and people go right back to complaining about the rats.
Now that’s not to say that I’m toeing the line of the fossil fuel companies, because there are plenty of real issues with all this, and those are the ones we should actually be talking about:
- Sooner or later, the oil and gas will run out. More drilling does not equal more oil. Someday your big gas truck will stop trucking, so you’d be wise to start thinking about what happens when the gas is gone.
- A wind farm in your backyard means you can point both middle fingers at the repressive regimes in Saudi Arabia and Iran and Russia and tell them to go pound sand. You want to truly be America First? Install a solar panel, and then stop giving your money to the Middle East.
- Climate change means migration, so we’d all better stop pretending you can build a wall, because people are going to find ways to get over and under and around it. We’re all gonna need to figure out how to be nice to each other when we’re sharing the beach in sunny warm Alaska.
That’s what we should all be talking about. The sky is not falling. But also, don’t ignore that things are happening. We have some responsibilities. The climate is changing — just like it does every Tuesday, and Mother Earth is gonna probably throw us a few more Great Lake-sized curveballs before human history is done. But also, we can adapt: It’s one of the few things humanity is actually good at.
